Was figure of 803 new homes a year in Wirral Council Cabinet report on the Local Plan calculated incorrectly?
I’ll start this look at how the housing requirement figure was calculated for Wirral Council’s Local Plan consultation by pointing out some good news. The housing requirement figure was calculated based on population projections. The government response to the draft National Planning Policy Framework was published last month and states on pages 26 to 27:
However back to how the numbers are calculated, this document sets out the standard method.
Stage 1 – Setting the baseline
These figures are:
2018 – 145,000 households
2028 – 152,000 households
The projected annual household growth per a year over that period is (152,000-145,000) divided by 10 = 700.
Step 2 – An adjustment to take account of affordability
You take the most recent workplace-based affordability ratio, then apply it to a formula to calculate the adjustment factor.
For Wirral this figure is 5.92, so the adjustment factor is ((5.92 – 4) divided by 4) times by 0.25 = 0.12.
This adjustment factor is applied to a formula to give the minimum annual local housing need figure.
So the minimum annual local housing need figure is (1+0.12) times by 700 = 784.
Step 3 – Capping the level of any increase
The figure in the existing Unitary Development Plan is 700 households a year.
The average annual household growth calculated in step 1 is 700 a year.
The minimum annual local housing need figure calculated in step 2 is 784 a year.
The cap is set at 40 percent above the higher of the most recent average annual household requirement figure or household growth. These figures are both the same (700 a year).
The cap is therefore 700 + (40% of 700) = 980 a year.
As the capped figure (980) is higher than the annual local housing need figure (784) then the annual local housing need figure is used of 784 new homes a year.
This figure differs from the higher figure of 803 new homes a year used in the Cabinet report. This 803 figure appears to be based on the figure in this table which is using the 10 year period 2016 to 2026, rather than 2018 to 2028. The figure in that table is marked with an asterisk which means it hasn’t been verified by Wirral Council and may be subject to correction. The table was published last year as part of a consultation by the government called Planning for the right homes in the right places: consultation proposals.
If you click on any of the buttons below, you’ll be doing me a favour by sharing this article with other people.